More than two years since the inauguration of Zimbabwe’s Inclusive Government (IG) in February 2009, the transition towards a fully democratic state continues to be piecemeal and painfully slow. Zimbabwe has entered 2011 with no clear timetable and little prospect of a legitimate constitution or credible elections. Worse yet, Zimbabwe could see a return to violence, authoritarian rule and economic collapse.
Already there is widespread talk of a ‘negotiated constitution’ and of holding elections even though necessary reforms have not been implemented. Civil society monitoring mechanisms are reporting increasing incidences of violence and intimidation, particularly in rural areas. In the meantime, the IG stumbles from one crisis to another, while many of the key goals of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) remain unfulfilled.
However, significant progress has been made under the auspices of the Inclusive Government (IG) in terms of stabilising the economy and meeting basic needs. For example, the health and education sectors are once again functional – albeit with serious challenges. Whereas in 2008, the vast majority of children did not go to school, in 2010 virtually all students attended class without disruptions.
The IG has also presided over a dramatic economic turnaround, which has seen the country claw its way back from the brink of total economic collapse. In particular, dollarization eliminated the notorious parallel market for goods, cash and services; slashed inflation from millions of percent to single digits; and, boosted business confidence.
But the past decade has still seen a catastrophic decline with the economy contracting by about 50 percent, unemployment rising to around 90 percent, and poverty levels increasing to over 85 percent in 2008. Despite registering economic growth of 7 percent in the last year – the first expansion for a decade – there has been no real improvement in human development indices or increase in jobs. Zimbabwe is experiencing a kind of zero sum growth trajectory with a nominal growth in GDP without any corresponding jobs or opportunities created. Zimbabwe also faces a debt overhang of US$6.9 billion, which remains an albatross around its neck. If the government needs to find another US$8.3 billion for its recovery programme, then Zimbabwe needs to find US$15 billion in the short term. Serious thought needs to be put into addressing the debt crisis.
This economic ‘recovery’ is also very fragile, dependent as it is on a stable political situation. And the political situation is bleak. The Monday morning meetings between the principals were cancelled for many weeks in late 2010, while Prime Minister Tsvangirai threatened to take President Mugabe to court over the latter’s unilateral appointment of Provincial Governors. Much more worryingly, other vital processes have stalled. The constitution-drafting process has been deeply flawed, the reforms of the electoral system have been tentative and insufficient and the state security sector remains untransformed.
Instead of addressing those issues all parties have returned to electioneering in a context where the state institutions tasked with transferring power to any new administration in the event of an electoral win remain unreformed. Alarmingly, ZANU-PF electoral machinery now has access to substantial resources from the controversial mining and auctioning of Marange and Chiadzwa diamonds.
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